The chart above exhibits that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the following 12 months, 69% of Shoppers saying the identical factor, with the yield curve predicting a 61% likelihood of a contraction.

The issue is these units of forecasts is already 2 months previous, dated October 3, 2023. It was earlier than the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP information releases.

I’ve spent plenty of time discussing why forecasts are a waste of time. This got here up yesterday on Portfolio Rescue with Ben Carlson. We talked about how you must take into consideration Wall Road forecasts concerning the financial system. The TL:dr is the quick time period is simply too random, and so solely serves as advertising for institutional buying and selling corporations.

The place the exception comes from are folks like ISI’s Ed Hyman, who at all times laid out a number of potentialities — consensus and the outliers in every course — and what the market reactions is perhaps to that.

The whole dialogue is price watching, however the video beneath is teed up for the financial forecasting dialogue.

Beforehand:
Slowing U.S. Financial system, State by State (November 22, 2023)

Can Economists Predict Recessions? (September 29, 2023)

Why Recessions Matter to Buyers (July 11, 2022)

Forecasting & Prediction Discussions

Supply:
U.S. Financial Forecasts: What’s the Chance of a Recession in 2024?
By Dorothy Neufeld
Visible Capitalist, October 3, 2023